Article ni mmg panjang tetapi boleh memberi kefahaman tentang apa yg terjadi dgn keadaan ekonomi dunia hari ni yg mmg teruk dan yg lagi takutnya keadaan mungkin bertambah teruk yg mana akan membawa kegawatan ekonomi ke semua negara
Wabak Krisis Ekonomi Dunia
Mohd Noor Bin Omar
Pegawai Penyelidik
Mungkin hampir tidak ada pihak yang menjangkakan bahawa rentak tari ekonomi Amerika Syarikat (AS) dan dunia akan sumbang sebegini teruk sekali. Syarikat-syarikat gergasi yang gah mempunyai aset yang berbillion-billion di AS kini mengalami masalah kerugian, tidak dapat lagi meneruskan syarikat dan terpaksa gulung tikar kerana mengalami muflis. AS terpaksa menampung kerugian syarikat tertentu bagi memulihkan syarikat tertentu supaya dapat meneruskan hayatnya. Pasaran saham dan medan agihan modal di AS serta negara lain juga terjejas teruk akibat dari kemerosotan yang dihadapi. Urusniaga saham sesetengah negara terpaksa digantung.
Apa yang berlaku sebenarnya selama lebih kurang sepuluh tahun lepas, banyak pihak tenggelam dalam kerancakan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia yang dibiayai oleh ‘wang dan pulangan palsu'. Aturan ekonomi berasaskan riba dan gharar kerana matawang tidak disandarkan kepada nilai sebenar, ditambah pula dengan kegagalan pentadbiran kewangan berhemah menjadi punca segala permasalahan ini. Matawang dan urusniaga dilaksanakan semata-mata untuk menjana pesta pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berterusan dengan sifat menghancurkan (destructive economy) berbanding memakmurkan (productive economy). Keseluruhan aturan yang diamalkan bercanggah sama sekali dengan ruh kewangan Islami yang memberi penekanan kepada keadilan risiko dan pulangan (risk & return).
Pihak berkuasa pula seolah-olah terus tertidur diulit mimpi. Sekitar 200 agensi pengawalan dan penguatkuasa mengawasi Fannie Mae dan Freddie Mac tetapi kedua-dua syarikat ini akhirnya terbelenggu juga dengan hutang hampir USD$5 trilion. Pada asasnya, syarikat dokongan kerajaan ini membiarkan pelabur menyangka bahawa pinjaman perumahan yang mereka miliki, walaupun banyak yang lapuk, tetap dilindungi oleh kerajaan. Ini menyebabkan agensi-agensi pengadaran kredit (credit rating agencies) memberikan mereka markah tinggi termasuklah kepada bon-bon yang sebenarnya tidak boleh dipercayai. Seperti runtuhan jambatan reput yang menampung ribuan manusia, keruntuhannya menyebabkan bukan sahaja kesan ekonomi tetapi politik dan juga kemasyarakatan.
Banyak institusi kewangan memberi jenama baru hutang-hutang lapuk tersebut dan menjualnya semula di pasaran dunia. Ada institusi kewangan yang memberi pinjaman terlalu tinggi sehingga tiga puluh kali jumlah aset yang mereka miliki dengan pelbagai andaian termasuklah kemungkinan hartanah dan perumahan terus meningkat serta tidak mungkin jatuh. Dalam masa yang sama, pihak berkuasa terus membisu tidak mengambil langkah yang perlu untuk mengawalnya.
Apa yang berlaku menunjukan bahawa terdapat ketempangan yang jelas pada pihak berkuasa dan peraturan yang berkongsi kefahaman aturan kewangan yang sama. Apabila pihak berkuasa tertidur, jangan lah pula kita terkejut apabila ada pihak yang mengambil risiko terlalu tinggi. Yang patut dipersalahkan bukan saja aturan ekonomi malah juga pihak berkuasa. Sebarang penyelesaian yang dicadangkan mestilah kembali kepada prinsip-prinsip asas ekonomi. Usaha kerajaan Amerika untuk ‘bail out' syarikat tertentu hanya akan menyelamatkan mereka yang bersalah tanpa menghiraukan keperluan mencorak semula aturan keseluruhan ekonomi mereka.
Pada waktu yang sama kita juga harus sedar bahawa dunia ini bukan dominasi AS semata-mata. China kini merupakan ekonomi keempat terbesar di dunia dan ia terus berkembang dengan kadar hampir 10 peratus. India dan lain-lain negara membangun juga terus berkembang. Rakyat miskin di negara-negara membangun akan tetap merasai kesan positif pembangunan ekonomi negara mereka. Dengan mengambilkira kedudukan ini, walaupun ekonomi negara-negara Barat merudum, ekonomi dunia dianggarkan akan terus berkembang pada kadar 4 peratus. Negara-negara yang mengamalkan aturan kewangan Islami menjadi perhatian walaupun dalam kadar yang menurun.
Kemerosotan ini mengajar kita betapa pentingnya aturan ekonomi dilandaskan kepada aturan ekonomi Islami yang adil. Urusniaga yang secara besarnya berasaskan kepada jualbeli hutang atau kredit perlu disusun semula. Mungkin tepat pada masanya Malaysia mengorak langkah memakmurkan aturan kewangan Islami yang berlandaskan kepada keadilan dan saksama. Namun, kebelakangan ini ada sebilangan pengamal perbankan yang berkecenderungan meniru dan merekacipta produk kewangan mimikan kewangan biasa dengan mengenepikan falsafah dan ruh muamalah Islami. Dengan kata lain, ditakuti bahawa aturan ekonomi Islami juga bakal dijangkiti dengan penyakit yang sama sekiranya tersalah langkah. Hadith tidak terkecuali menegaskan tentang imbuhan harga atau imbangan pertukaran yang setimpal dalam faham pertukaran jualbeli. Pendekatan yang sama juga digunakan oleh Khalifah Umar ibn Khattab dalam menetapkan kadar diyat (pampasan) yang baru apabila nilai dirham jatuh akibat daripada kenaikan harga barang. Perkara yang sama boleh didapati juga dalam satu surat kerajaan khalifah keempat Saidina Ali ibn Abi Talib.
Mungkin sudah tiba masanya pihak berkuasa di Malaysia mempertimbangkan aturan pentadbiran kewangan, aqad dan institusi kewangan dengan lebih terperinci seperti penggubalan dan pengiktirafan setara bagi aqad atau undang-undang Islami untuk pemakaian dan pengiktirafan dengan lebih luas. Halangan-halangan pentabdiran perundangan perlu dilihat semula bagi memberi ruang dalam perlaksanaannya di mahkamah ke atas kes-kes pertikaian melibatkan aqad muamalah Islami.
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
A country up North could be the first in the world to declare bankruptcy
A country up North could be the first in the world to declare bankruptcy due to the financial crisis.
scary plak rasa...bukan takat company je...country pun bleh kena declare bankrupt..jgnla malaysia jadi camnih
Iceland Teeters On The Brink of Bankruptcy
By JANE WARDELL,AP Business Writer AP - Wednesday, October 8
REYKJAVIK, Iceland - This volcanic island near the Arctic Circle is on the brink of becoming the first "national bankruptcy" of the global financial meltdown.
Home to just 320,000 people on a territory the size of Kentucky, Iceland has formidable international reach because of an outsized banking sector that set out with Viking confidence to conquer swaths of the British economy _ from fashion retailers to top soccer teams.
The strategy gave Icelanders one of the world's highest per capita incomes. But now they are watching helplessly as their economy implodes _ their currency losing almost half its value, and their heavily exposed banks collapsing under the weight of debts incurred by lending in the boom times.
"Everything is closed. We couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said Johann Sigurdsson as he left a branch of Landsbanki in downtown Reykjavik.
The government had earlier announced it had nationalized the bank under emergency laws enacted to deal with the crisis.
"We have been forced to take decisive action to save the country," Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde said of those sweeping new powers that allow the government to take over companies, limit the authority of boards, and call shareholder meetings.
A full-blown collapse of Iceland's financial system would send shock waves across Europe, given the heavy investment by Icelandic banks and companies across the continent.
One of Iceland's biggest companies, retailing investment group Baugur, owns or has stakes in dozens of major European retailers _ including enough to make it the largest private company in Britain, where it owns a handful of stores such as the famous toy store Hamley's.
Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank and one of those whose share trading was suspended last week to stop a huge sell-off, has also invested in European retail groups.
Thousands of Britons have accounts with Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki that regulators said was likely to file for bankruptcy after it stopped permitting customers to withdraw money from their accounts Tuesday.
To try to wrest control of the spiraling situation, the government also loaned $680 million to Kaupthing to tide it over and said it was negotiating a $5.4 billion loan from Russia to shore up the nation's finances.
The speed of Iceland's downfall in the week since it announced it was nationalizing Glitnir bank, the country's third largest, caught many by surprise despite warnings that it was the "canary in the coal mine" of the global credit squeeze.
Famous for its cod fishing industry, geysers, moonscape and the Blue Lagoon, Iceland was the site of the Cold War showdown in which Bobby Fischer of the United States defeated Boris Spassky of the Soviet Union in 1972 for the world chess championship. Last year, Iceland won the U.N.'s "best country to live in" poll, with its residents deemed the most contented in the world.
No more.
Despite sunny skies Tuesday after three days of unseasonably cold weather, Reykjavik's mood remained grim _ cafes were half-empty, real estate agents sat idle, and retailers reported few sales.
"I'm really starting to get worried now. Everything is bad news. I don't know what's happening," said retiree Helga Jonsdottir as she headed to a supermarket.
Icelanders are also beginning to question how a relative few were able to generate the disproportionate wealth _ and associated debt _ that Haarde has warned puts the entire country at risk of bankruptcy.
Iceland's reinvention from the poor cousin in Europe to one of the region's wealthiest countries dates to the deregulation of the banking industry and the creation of the domestic stock market in the mid-1990s.
Those free market reforms turned Iceland from a conservative, inward-looking country to one of a new generation of internationally educated young businessmen and women who were determined to give Iceland a modern profile far beyond its fishing base.
Entrepreneurs become its greatest export, as banks and companies marched across Europe and their acquisition wallets were filled by a stock market boom and a well-funded pension system. Among the purchases were the iconic Hamley's toy store and the West Ham soccer team.
Back home, the average family's wealth soared 45 percent in half a decade and gross domestic product rose at around 5 percent a year.
But the whole system was built on a shaky foundation of foreign debt.
The country's top four banks now hold foreign liabilities in excess of $100 billion, debts that dwarf Iceland's gross domestic product of $14 billion.
Those external liabilities mean the private sector has had great difficulty financing its debts, such as the more than $5.25 billion racked up by Kaupthing in five years to help fund British deals.
Iceland is unique "because the sheer size of its financial sector puts it in a vulnerable situation, and its currency has always been seen as a high risk and high yield," said Venla Sipila, a senior economist at Global Insight in London.
The krona is suffering in part from a withdrawal by a falloff in what are called carry trades _ where investors borrow cheaply in a country with low rates, such as Japan, and invest in a country where returns, and often risks, are higher.
After watching the free-fall for several days, the Central Bank of Iceland stepped in Tuesday to fix the exchange rate of the currency at 175 _ a level equal to 131 krona against the euro.
Haarde said he believed the measures had renewed confidence in the system. He also was critical of the lack of an Europe-wide response to the crisis, saying Iceland had been forced to adopt an "every-country-for-itself" mentality.
He acknowledged that Iceland's financial reputation was likely to suffer from both the crisis and the response despite strong fundamentals such as the fishing industry and clean and renewable energy resources.
As regular Icelanders begin to blame the government and market regulators, Haarde said the banks had been "victims of external circumstances."
Richard Portes of the London Business School agreed, noting the banks were well-capitalized and had not bought any of the toxic debt that has brought down banks elsewhere.
"I believe it is absolutely wrong to say these banks were reckless," said. "Quite the contrary. They were hugely unlucky."
scary plak rasa...bukan takat company je...country pun bleh kena declare bankrupt..jgnla malaysia jadi camnih
Iceland Teeters On The Brink of Bankruptcy
By JANE WARDELL,AP Business Writer AP - Wednesday, October 8
REYKJAVIK, Iceland - This volcanic island near the Arctic Circle is on the brink of becoming the first "national bankruptcy" of the global financial meltdown.
Home to just 320,000 people on a territory the size of Kentucky, Iceland has formidable international reach because of an outsized banking sector that set out with Viking confidence to conquer swaths of the British economy _ from fashion retailers to top soccer teams.
The strategy gave Icelanders one of the world's highest per capita incomes. But now they are watching helplessly as their economy implodes _ their currency losing almost half its value, and their heavily exposed banks collapsing under the weight of debts incurred by lending in the boom times.
"Everything is closed. We couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said Johann Sigurdsson as he left a branch of Landsbanki in downtown Reykjavik.
The government had earlier announced it had nationalized the bank under emergency laws enacted to deal with the crisis.
"We have been forced to take decisive action to save the country," Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde said of those sweeping new powers that allow the government to take over companies, limit the authority of boards, and call shareholder meetings.
A full-blown collapse of Iceland's financial system would send shock waves across Europe, given the heavy investment by Icelandic banks and companies across the continent.
One of Iceland's biggest companies, retailing investment group Baugur, owns or has stakes in dozens of major European retailers _ including enough to make it the largest private company in Britain, where it owns a handful of stores such as the famous toy store Hamley's.
Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank and one of those whose share trading was suspended last week to stop a huge sell-off, has also invested in European retail groups.
Thousands of Britons have accounts with Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki that regulators said was likely to file for bankruptcy after it stopped permitting customers to withdraw money from their accounts Tuesday.
To try to wrest control of the spiraling situation, the government also loaned $680 million to Kaupthing to tide it over and said it was negotiating a $5.4 billion loan from Russia to shore up the nation's finances.
The speed of Iceland's downfall in the week since it announced it was nationalizing Glitnir bank, the country's third largest, caught many by surprise despite warnings that it was the "canary in the coal mine" of the global credit squeeze.
Famous for its cod fishing industry, geysers, moonscape and the Blue Lagoon, Iceland was the site of the Cold War showdown in which Bobby Fischer of the United States defeated Boris Spassky of the Soviet Union in 1972 for the world chess championship. Last year, Iceland won the U.N.'s "best country to live in" poll, with its residents deemed the most contented in the world.
No more.
Despite sunny skies Tuesday after three days of unseasonably cold weather, Reykjavik's mood remained grim _ cafes were half-empty, real estate agents sat idle, and retailers reported few sales.
"I'm really starting to get worried now. Everything is bad news. I don't know what's happening," said retiree Helga Jonsdottir as she headed to a supermarket.
Icelanders are also beginning to question how a relative few were able to generate the disproportionate wealth _ and associated debt _ that Haarde has warned puts the entire country at risk of bankruptcy.
Iceland's reinvention from the poor cousin in Europe to one of the region's wealthiest countries dates to the deregulation of the banking industry and the creation of the domestic stock market in the mid-1990s.
Those free market reforms turned Iceland from a conservative, inward-looking country to one of a new generation of internationally educated young businessmen and women who were determined to give Iceland a modern profile far beyond its fishing base.
Entrepreneurs become its greatest export, as banks and companies marched across Europe and their acquisition wallets were filled by a stock market boom and a well-funded pension system. Among the purchases were the iconic Hamley's toy store and the West Ham soccer team.
Back home, the average family's wealth soared 45 percent in half a decade and gross domestic product rose at around 5 percent a year.
But the whole system was built on a shaky foundation of foreign debt.
The country's top four banks now hold foreign liabilities in excess of $100 billion, debts that dwarf Iceland's gross domestic product of $14 billion.
Those external liabilities mean the private sector has had great difficulty financing its debts, such as the more than $5.25 billion racked up by Kaupthing in five years to help fund British deals.
Iceland is unique "because the sheer size of its financial sector puts it in a vulnerable situation, and its currency has always been seen as a high risk and high yield," said Venla Sipila, a senior economist at Global Insight in London.
The krona is suffering in part from a withdrawal by a falloff in what are called carry trades _ where investors borrow cheaply in a country with low rates, such as Japan, and invest in a country where returns, and often risks, are higher.
After watching the free-fall for several days, the Central Bank of Iceland stepped in Tuesday to fix the exchange rate of the currency at 175 _ a level equal to 131 krona against the euro.
Haarde said he believed the measures had renewed confidence in the system. He also was critical of the lack of an Europe-wide response to the crisis, saying Iceland had been forced to adopt an "every-country-for-itself" mentality.
He acknowledged that Iceland's financial reputation was likely to suffer from both the crisis and the response despite strong fundamentals such as the fishing industry and clean and renewable energy resources.
As regular Icelanders begin to blame the government and market regulators, Haarde said the banks had been "victims of external circumstances."
Richard Portes of the London Business School agreed, noting the banks were well-capitalized and had not bought any of the toxic debt that has brought down banks elsewhere.
"I believe it is absolutely wrong to say these banks were reckless," said. "Quite the contrary. They were hugely unlucky."
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